Ethiopia’s revival of plans to construct three additional hydropower projects on the Blue Nile—Karadobi, Mandaya, and Beko Abo—has reignited geopolitical tensions with Egypt, following the inauguration of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in September 2025. The three proposed projects have a combined generating potential reported at about 5,700 megawatts, though their specifications remain subject to change during the planning stage.
Karadobi, Mandaya, and Beko Abo Hydropower Projects
For Ethiopia, developing the Blue Nile is linked to electricity generation, economic growth, and energy security. For Egypt, which depends on the Nile for nearly all its freshwater with the Blue Nile supplying approximately 85% of the water reaching the country, upstream management is viewed through the lens of national security. Egypt has centered its response on diplomacy, international pressure, and cooperation with Sudan rather than attempting to stop construction outright, though the GERD experience highlighted the limits of Cairo’s influence after years of negotiations failed to produce a binding agreement.
Badr Abdelatty and the Middle East News Agency
Egyptian warnings have sharpened as a result of the renewed dam plans. On July 13, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty rejected reports of additional unilateral construction and stated that Egypt reserved the right to legitimate self-defense under international law. Additionally, an unnamed Egyptian government official told the Middle East News Agency on August 16 that Cairo possessed means to protect its Nile interests and would not allow any country to control the river’s flow to downstream states. Political analysts have noted that the reaction remains largely contained within diplomatic and legal channels.
Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement
Beyond technical operations, the dispute involves conflicting legal frameworks for the river. The Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement entered into force in October 2024 after ratification by Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda. Egypt and Sudan did not ratify the agreement, maintaining a divide over historical and existing water rights versus upstream territorial and development claims.
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