PM Carney prepared for US military invasion risk, report says

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney over the past year has prepared for the unlikely risk that President Donald Trump might order military action against Canada, a news report says.

The New York Times Interview on Extreme Tail Risk

The New York Times, citing an interview with Mr. Carney, said he had described the probability of such action as extreme tail risk. It’s a term used in finance and risk management, and refers to a very rare event that would cause enormous damage but is so unlikely that people tend to ignore or underestimate it.

The Times reported Wednesday that Mr. Carney, after being pressed on whether he took Mr. Trump’s threats to make Canada a 51st state seriously, suggested that he had carefully examined the possibility of a U.S.-led military invasion, but declined to discuss in detail what that involved.

Canadian Armed Forces Modelling a Hypothetical U.S. Military Invasion

The Globe reported in January that the Canadian Armed Forces have modelled a hypothetical U.S. military invasion of Canada and the country’s potential response, which includes tactics similar to those employed against Russia and later U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan. It attributed this to senior government sources.

This is believed to be the first time in a century that the Forces had created a model of an American assault on this country, a founding member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and a partner with the U.S. in continental air defence. A military model is a conceptual and theoretical framework, not a military plan, which is an actionable and step-by-step directive for executing operations.

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The Times noted Mr. Carney was a former central banker who approaches the world by meticulously assessing worst-case scenarios and drafting responses. The Prime Minister explained in the interview that what he did was perform risk management. That’s not a base case, he said of the possibility of U.S. military action against Canada. But it would be irresponsible not to prepare.

Assessing Extreme Tail Risk Amid U.S. Trade Warfare

Speaking to the New York Times, Prime Minister Mark Carney defended preparations for what he termed an unlikely military emergency. When pressed on U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated rhetoric labeling Canada as a potential 51st state, Carney maintained that government leaders must account for severe geopolitical volatility.

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I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk, Carney told the newspaper, adding that’s just risk management. A US invasion is not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to prepare, the prime minister said when pressed about the subject and President Donald Trump’s repeated rhetoric about making Canada the 51st state.

That risk management coincides with an economic clash that has severely strained cross-border ties. The trade war between Canada and the United States has been escalating after efforts to reach a trade deal failed in mid-August. The day after talks broke down, Trump imposed 50 per cent duties on $28 billion in Canadian goods, while Canada implemented retaliatory tariffs in early September. The president also signed an order to identify and remove products of Canadian origin from U.S. government procurement systems.

As part of its response, Canada’s plan to procure a full fleet of F-35 stealth fighters remains under a political review by Carney’s government, which was launched more than a year ago in response to the trade war started by Trump. Carney also spoke in the interview about Canada’s plans to reduce its reliance on Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet service and discussed Canada considering alternatives to buying American F-35 fighter jets.

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Audrey Champoux and Prime Minister’s Office Comments on Donald Trump

Mr. Carney‘s decision to discuss these preparations for the unlikely prospect of military attack by the United States – while speaking to a U.S. newspaper in New York – comes as he is locked in a costly trade war with Mr. Trump that is hurting consumers and businesses.

Audrey Champoux, deputy director of communications in the Prime Minister’s Office, said the PMO had nothing to add to Mr. Carney’s reported comments.

The New York Times report says Carney disclosed that he and Trump speak “frequently,” even since trade talks collapsed last month, something the prime minister has said multiple times in recent weeks. At a news conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy earlier this month, Carney said he speaks to Trump regularly and that they can compartmentalize, adding that part of their responsibility is to work together to resolve global issues like the war in Ukraine.