China is considering a bid to host the UN climate change conference COP33 in 2028, positioning itself as a potential exporter of green technologies while navigating complex geopolitical dynamics with the United States and massive domestic greenhouse gas emissions.
As the international community looks ahead to upcoming summits in Turkey and Ethiopia, Beijing is weighing whether to throw its hat into the ring for the 2028 conference. The annual United Nations climate gatherings rotate among regional blocs, with this year’s COP31 scheduled to take place in Turkey, followed by COP32 in Ethiopia in 2027. The 2028 summit falling to the Asia-Pacific.
Regional Vacancy and the Path to COP33
The path to hosting COP33 opened up significantly when India withdrew its bid to host in April without specifying a reason. South Korea has also previously expressed interest in holding the conference, according to international reporting. China’s interest was first reported by Bloomberg News.
Despite the speculation, the formal machinery of the United Nations has yet to receive official notification. The Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) told AFP that it has not been informed by the Asia-Pacific Regional Group regarding the nomination of the host country for COP33.
Under UN procedures, regional groups hold consultations first to determine which country from their respective regions will offer to host on behalf of the group. Once agreed, the chair of that regional group formally sends an official nomination to the secretariat. Two sources familiar with the matter told AFP Friday that Beijing has not yet made a final decision regarding the proposal for the COP33 summit, nor is there a clear timeline for doing so. The host does not have to be decided this year. The Chinese embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a query for comment.
Green Tech Dominance Versus Domestic Emissions
A successful bid would allow Beijing to boost its credentials as a climate leader, countering its image as the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter. China has in recent years positioned itself as a counterweight to the United States. Under President Donald Trump, the US left the landmark Paris climate agreement twice while the administration seeks to boost fossil fuels. Hosting UN climate talks could thus be an opportunity for China to boost its credentials as a climate leader. The nation maintains an immense manufacturing industry supporting a population of 1.4 billion people, placing its overall emissions output as the world’s biggest greenhouse emitter, followed by the United States, India, and the European Union.
At the same time, the world’s second-largest economy also has an economic interest as the leading exporter of green technologies, including solar panels, electric vehicles, wind turbines, and batteries. While Beijing has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, it is targeting only a modest 7-10 percent reduction in economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, compared to peak levels.
Navigating US-China Relations and the 2028 Election
Domestic climate policy is not the only factor under consideration. According to sources familiar with the internal discussions, another piece that China is considering is the US-China dynamic, one source said. Climate cooperation had been a key feature of the bilateral relationship under former presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama, and COP33 could spur renewed collaboration if a Democrat is elected in 2028. The 2028 summit would likely fall days after the US presidential election to replace Trump.
“The dynamics between the US and China have been a force for both progress and tension over the 35-year history of the climate regime, and the larger US-China relationship will continue to be challenging regardless of the outcome of the next election.”
Alden Meyer of the climate change think tank E3G
Whether a potential bid materializes will depend on how Beijing calculates these geopolitical currents against its economic ambitions in the global renewable energy market.
