The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is underway, with forecasters predicting below-average activity by the time the season ends in November, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA’s official outlook, which covers the period from June 1 to November 30, indicates a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of an above-normal season. The agency forecasts a total of 8-14 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher.
NOAA Predicts Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season Amid El Niño Conditions
Of those named storms, NOAA predicts 3-6 will become hurricanes with winds reaching 74 mph or higher, which includes 1-3 major hurricanes classified as Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher. By comparison, a typical average season generates 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The anticipated return of El Niño and its potential to become historically strong serve as the major driving force behind the below-normal outlook. El Niño conditions typically support fewer tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that the National Weather Service is prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings using advanced modeling and tracking technologies.
Central Pacific Basin Expected to Face Active Season
In contrast to the Atlantic, forecasters with the National Weather Service predict an above-normal hurricane season for the central Pacific basin. The central Pacific outlook calls for a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season, with an agency forecast of 5-13 tropical cyclones across the basin.
The most recent forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center indicates that moderate or stronger El Niño conditions are expected throughout the hurricane season in the tropical Pacific. Strong El Niño conditions are typically associated with dramatically elevated levels of storm activity in the central Pacific.
Tropical Storm Lala Triggers Hawaii Warnings
As storms progress across the Pacific, Tropical Storm Lala has prompted a hurricane warning for Hawaii’s Big Island. According to the National Hurricane Center, Lala is expected to strengthen further and reach hurricane strength as it passes near the island.
The National Weather Service in Honolulu placed the Big Island South district under a hurricane watch, noting that hurricane-force winds are possible within a 48-hour window. Current forecasts point to peak winds of 45 to 60 mph with gusts up to 75 mph. Officials emphasized that Lala’s greatest threat comes from heavy rainfall rather than storm surge, with forecast totals of 5 to 10 inches and maximum totals reaching up to 20 inches across parts of the island chain. Forecasters warned that the rainfall carries a risk of producing life-threatening flooding, severe mudslides, and rockslides in steep terrain.
New Forecasting Tools and Preparedness Guidance
For the 2026 season, the National Hurricane Center is implementing an improved version of the tropical cyclone forecast cone graphic that includes inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The center is also testing an experimental track forecast cone that incorporates uncertainties for both direction of movement and timing.
For Hawaii specifically, new products include storm surge watches and warnings alongside a peak storm surge graphic available on hurricanes.gov. NOAA leadership continues to stress that seasonal outlooks are based on large-scale climate patterns and do not serve as landfall forecasts, urging residents to review preparedness plans early through official channels such as weather.gov/safety and Ready.gov.
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