Six months after the United States and Israel launched military strikes to topple Iran’s clerical leadership, the conflict has failed to achieve its objectives. Instead of collapsing, Iran’s regime has hardened, while Tehran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz has rattled global energy markets and strained traditional regional alliances.
When President Donald Trump and Israeli leaders initiated the military campaign on February 28, 2026, they pursued a straightforward goal: removing the ruling clerical government and installing a pro-Western administration. At the time, Iran was on the ropes. A cratered currency had ignited massive anti-government protests that security forces brutally suppressed in January, following a punishing 12-day Israeli and American bombardment the previous summer.
Instead of yielding to the pressure, the regime absorbed the blows. Israeli airstrikes in the opening salvos wiped out much of the government’s leadership structure, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Yet, as noted by administration officials and reported across the press, the leadership was quickly replaced, and the populace largely ignored outside exhortations to stage a fresh uprising.
Strait of Hormuz Leverage and the Shift to Economic Sanctions
Rather than collapsing under the onslaught, Tehran found potent leverage in geography. Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, restricting the passage of vessels carrying oil and liquefied natural gas.
Trump agreed to a ceasefire in April and signed a deal in June that crumbled weeks later. As the conflict reached the six-month mark, Trump declared he was not in a hurry to resume negotiations. The administration announced a pivot away from sustained military operations toward intensified economic sanctions, threatening penalties against any country or entity continuing to trade with Tehran.
The turn to using sanctions as the cudgel of choice comes as the administration weighs diminished munitions stockpiles after months of war, sparking concerns that the prolonged conflict could undermine U.S. military readiness in other parts of the globe. It’s unclear how — or if — Trump will address the six-month anniversary of a conflict that has already cost the United States more than $37.5 billion and done damage to his popularity ahead of critical November elections for his party.
Regional Security Realignment and Fractured Alliances
For decades, the U.S. has been committed to protecting wealthy Gulf oil exporters from external aggression, using a sprawling network of bases across the region. That arrangement was tested when Iran retaliated against Israel, but it also trained its missiles and drones on Gulf nations that had hoped to stay out of the war, striking U.S. bases and critical energy infrastructure, stretching air defenses and drawing down American munitions.
Gulf Arab nations saw worrying gaps open up in the American security umbrella they have relied on for decades — and some are looking at alternatives. Israel has once again thrashed its enemies without defeating them, and after nearly three years of war in Gaza and new land seizures, is at risk of a generational rupture with the U.S., its closest ally. Hopes of normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia — another enduring U.S. and Israeli aspiration — have dimmed even further.
Assessing the Strategic Balance at the Six-Month Mark
When they attacked Iran on Feb. 28, the U.S. and Israel hoped to topple its clerical leadership and replace it with a pro-Western government. Instead, they’ve ended up with a hardened and very radical regime,
said Barbara Leaf, a former ambassador who served as assistant secretary of state for the Middle East in the Biden administration.
That is going to be exceptionally difficult to deal with, to say the least,
she said. Leaf noted that Iran’s confidence has grown over the months that it cannot only survive, but it can prevail, it can reset the regional landscape.
As President Donald Trump spent Friday in Houston honoring the Artemis II NASA crew for their 10-day mission around the moon earlier this year, foreign policy specialists evaluated the altered landscape. Iran is now determined to exert permanent control over the strait, to use it to ward off future attacks and secure other concessions, while giving no ground on its disputed nuclear program.
Iran has demonstrated that Hormuz gives it significant leverage, but prolonged disruption also hurts its neighbors, China, and the global economy, while encouraging alternatives to the strait,
said Yoel Guzansky, an expert on Iran and the Gulf at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies. Guzansky added that Tehran’s danger is confusing its ability to survive with victory and demanding more than its leverage can deliver.
Ещё по этой теме
