Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold has reached 0.50, matching pandemic-era highs last seen in 2020. The shift comes as the U.S. Treasury doubles long-term debt buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation, driving investors toward scarce hard assets while tech stock links fall to a one-year low.
Financial markets are witnessing a decoupling between speculative growth assets and traditional hard money. Bitcoin’s price relationship with gold has surged to its highest level in six years, with the 90-day price correlation climbing past the 0.50 threshold according to data published by Bitwise. That metric has more than doubled since the beginning of 2026, when the correlation hovered near zero.
The current environment mirrors the market dynamics observed during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. Analysts point to government intervention as the catalyst pushing investors toward both asset classes simultaneously.
André Dragosch, Bitwise’s European Head of Research, stated that the last time the bitcoin-gold correlation was that high was in 2020, following the rounds of fiscal and monetary stimulus during the Covid crisis.
U.S. Treasury Debt Buybacks and the Debasement Trade
The acceleration in the bitcoin-gold relationship followed a policy shift from Washington. In mid-August, the U.S. Treasury Department announced it would double the maximum size of liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated government debt, raising operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion each. The move aimed to rein in long-term borrowing costs, but it triggered reverberations across currency and debt markets.
Compounding these concerns, the same week brought confirmation that U.S. public debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time. The combination of expanding deficits and active debt monetization has renewed anxieties over the long-term purchasing power of fiat currency. Market participants have revived the so-called debasement trade
, directing capital into assets with capped or limited supplies.
Gold prices traded near $4,430 per ounce during the surge, while Bitcoin hovered around $81,000 after a monthly rally that netted a 25% gain in August. Central banks have also leaned into traditional safe havens amid geopolitical uncertainty, highlighted by actions such as the Netherlands relocating 86 tonnes of gold to London.
Bitcoin Breaks Away From the Nasdaq and Tech Equities
While the link to precious metals strengthened, Bitcoin’s historical tether to growth stocks dissolved. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 fell to roughly 0.30, marking its lowest level in a full year and dropping from previous highs above 60%.
For years, critics dismissed the cryptocurrency as a high-beta risk asset that traded in tandem with speculative technology stocks. The recent divergence occurred during the August rally, when Bitcoin gained over 20% in days while traditional U.S. equities struggled under macroeconomic pressures.
Observers note that institutional behavior reflects a reassessment of the asset’s utility. Rather than treating the leading cryptocurrency merely as a speculative instrument for loose monetary conditions, market participants are increasingly valuing its scarcity properties.
Bitwise noted in a research report that investors are no longer asking whether to hedge currency debasement with gold or bitcoin, but are simply hedging with both.
Divergent Market Signals and Short-Term Outlook
Despite the broader structural shift toward safe-haven characteristics, technical indicators suggest potential near-term volatility. While Bitcoin’s moving averages approach a golden cross—a bull market signal—short-term price action faces headwinds from shifting demand structures.
As fiscal pressures mount and the national debt continues to expand, market participants remain focused on upcoming macroeconomic decisions and legislative timelines. Whether the current lockstep movement between the world’s oldest hard asset and its premier digital counterpart becomes a permanent fixture of global finance depends largely on how monetary authorities manage the mounting debt burden.
Bitwise observed in a research report that Bitcoin spent its first fifteen years being priced as a risk asset, and added that if this correlation trend with gold holds, the next fifteen may look very different.
Ultimately, the long-term trajectory of these assets will be determined by whether they can maintain this emerging synergy amid a shifting global economic landscape.
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