Following a week of fruitless searches, researchers at BRIN have mapped simulated ocean currents to predict the drift paths of five journalists and three crew members missing near Mount Anak Krakatau since September 7, 2026, while authorities deploy hundreds of personnel across thousands of square nautical miles.
More than a week after five journalists and three boat crew members lost contact while traveling toward Mount Anak Krakatau, official search operations continue without a confirmed sighting in waters near Mount Anak Krakatau after a week. The individuals went missing on September 7, 2026, prompting a massive mobilization of rescue personnel and subsequent oceanographic modeling to narrow down potential drift areas.
BRIN Oceanographic Simulation Maps Potential Drift Paths Toward Sumatra
To assist in locating the missing parties, researchers at the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center of the National Innovation and Research Agency (BRIN) generated an animated simulation of Sunda Strait water currents. According to BRIN simulations of missing journalists, investigators believe the victims may have drifted toward the west coast of Sumatra, assuming they remained equipped with life jackets.
The modeling team utilized two distinct scenarios based on initial reports regarding the coordinates where contact was lost. They were 29.9 kilometers or approximately 16 nautical miles apart,
said Widodo Setiyo Pranowo, a researcher in applied oceanography and coastal management at BRIN, regarding the divergence between the two potential starting points.
The first modeled point originates west of Banten waters from Carita, Serang Regency. That scenario projects that currents carried victims south of Anak Krakatau toward the waters east of Enggano Island off Bengkulu’s west coast by the 14th day. The second scenario starts closer to Sebesi Island, carrying particles past Tanjung Belimbing in Lampung before reaching waters surrounding Enggano Island between days 11 and 14.
Basarnas Deploys Vessels and Aircraft Across Thousands of Square Nautical Miles
On the ground and at sea, the National Search and Rescue Agency (Basarnas) scaled up its active response. On Tuesday, marking the eighth day of the operation, Basarnas deployed 20 vessels and over 600 personnel to comb 3,962 square nautical miles of waters surrounding Anak Krakatau as well as coastal stretches of Banten and Bengkulu provinces.
Operations have faced severe environmental obstacles, including cloudy weather and vast search zones lacking precise final coordinate data for the missing vessel. Rizky Dwianto, head of operations at the Basarnas Banten office, noted that teams have thoroughly checked potential emergency docking locations such as Serung, Rakata, and Panjang islands where they could potentially have docked in an emergency. Aerial searches conducted via helicopter yielded no significant results, and diving operations experienced disruptions due to expansive search parameters and uncertain last known positions.
Methodology and Data Behind the Particle Transport Model
The BRIN research team constructed their particle transport simulation using the Euler-Lagrangian method. They incorporated global model archive data from the European Union’s Copernicus Marine Service, which supplies surface current, tide, and wave parameters at a spatial resolution of roughly nine kilometers alongside hourly time intervals.
To calculate total water movement, the simulation combined regular ocean currents, tidal dynamics, and wave thrust. Wind speeds were estimated indirectly via wave dynamics, while seabed topography relied on depth maps from the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO) paired with the Base Map of Indonesia.
Widodo noted that input datasets balanced recorded conditions with predictive calculations. For September 7 to about September 12, the data has been corrected with satellite observations, while for September 13 to 21, it is still a forecast,
he explained regarding the temporal scope of the model, which was scheduled to run through September 22, 2026.
The simulation placed 2,000 simulated individuals—modeled at an estimated weight of 60 to 70 kilograms each—into the Sunda Strait. Researchers integrated the Leeway factor to account for wind forces acting on body parts exposed above the water surface while adjusting for partial submersion.
Ongoing Coastal Sweeps and Unconfirmed Discoveries
While modeling provides broader geographical targets for drift patterns, recovery teams maintain active physical patrols. Authorities in Bengkulu’s Enggano Island examined a body found on the shore to determine whether it matched any of the missing individuals while police work to identify a body found on the shore of Enggano Island in Bengkulu.
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