South Sudan faces a rising threat of atrocity crimes and renewed displacement as the country approaches its December 2026 national elections, according to a report released by the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, which cited hundreds of ceasefire violations and deteriorating security conditions.
Fifteen years after gaining independence, South Sudan stands at a critical juncture as preparations for its first national elections move forward amid widespread armed conflict and deepening political division. According to UN News, multiple risk factors for atrocity crimes are converging simultaneously across the nation. The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan warned that the window to prevent a return to the widespread atrocities and displacement witnessed between 2013 and 2018 is closing rapidly.
Escalating Armed Conflict Across Upper Nile, Jonglei, and Unity States
Armed conflict has resumed across several regions, compounding the displacement of local populations. In March 2025, fighting broke out between government forces and the White Army—a youth militia associated with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement In-Government faction—in Nasir, Upper Nile. The fighting subsequently spread to Jonglei State, pushing more than 100,000 people to flee across the border into Ethiopia by March 2026.
The commission recorded a total of 407 ceasefire violations between August 2025 and January 2026.
Unimplemented Peace Agreements and Security Deficits
The instability is exacerbated by delays in executing the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan, the 2018 peace accord designed to end the civil war. Nearly half of the key provisions in the agreement remain unfulfilled. A central unresolved issue is the unification of the country’s security forces, a measure considered essential for lasting stability.
In July 2026, President Salva Kiir signed a bill removing several pre-election requirements outlined in the peace agreement. The elections are planned for December 2026.
Warnings From Commissioners on Electoral Integrity
Independent human rights experts have voiced deep concern that rushing to hold elections without foundational safeguards will intensify ethnic and political divisions rather than resolve them. The commissioners emphasized that an electoral schedule alone does not guarantee a democratic outcome.
“The guns are returning while the safeguards for peaceful political competition are disappearing. That is a profoundly dangerous trajectory.”
Barney Afako, Commissioner
Commission Chair Yasmin Sooka stressed that while South Sudanese citizens have waited 15 years to cast their first ballots, the vote must not establish a new violent battleground. Commissioner Carlos Castresana Fernández underscored the institutional prerequisites necessary for a legitimate poll.
“An election cannot be credible simply because it is held on schedule. It is credible when citizens can vote without fear, political opponents can participate freely, courts can resolve disputes independently, and institutions can constrain the exercise of power.”
Carlos Castresana Fernández, Commissioner
With the December 2026 vote fast approaching, international observers and human rights monitors warn that unless leaders recommit to inclusive dialogue and security sector reform, the country risks sliding deeper into conflict.
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