South Korean defense officials estimate that North Korea possesses between 80 and 120 nuclear warheads, according to statements made during a parliamentary meeting in Seoul. Defense Minister Ahn Kyu-back delivered the assessment, noting that the figures are based on estimates from private research organizations and that the South Korean military cannot officially confirm the exact data.
South Korea Estimates North Korea Holds Up to 120 Nuclear Warheads
The defense minister’s figures diverge from recent remarks made by United States President Donald Trump, who stated during an event at the White House that Pyongyang possesses 57 nuclear weapons. Addressing the differing figures, Báo điện tử Tiền Phong noted that the numbers appear somewhat different.
President Trump stated at the White House event that he maintains a good relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, describing the weapons as extremely potent and asserting that the situation should never have been allowed to develop. When questioned about potential future meetings, the U.S. President confirmed his intention to meet with the North Korean leader later in the year, reviving diplomatic efforts that included summits in 2018 and 2019. Reports from the Wall Street Journal indicate that a meeting could potentially occur on the sidelines of an Asia trip and an APEC summit in China in November.
Policy Stance and Regional Security Context
South Korea maintains a traditional policy of avoiding public, detailed estimates of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and does not officially recognize Pyongyang as a nuclear weapons state, aligning with a longstanding policy supporting the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Minister Ahn reaffirmed this stance, stating that Seoul cannot officially grant such recognition and will continue to rely on the U.S. nuclear umbrella while adhering to its own non-nuclear policy.
The discussions regarding the size of North Korea’s arsenal coincide with efforts by the U.S. to resume dialogue with Pyongyang. As part of these diplomatic overtures, President Trump ordered a reduction in the scale of joint military exercises between the U.S. and South Korea, an action he described as a measure to ease hostility.
Reactions from Pyongyang and Recent Developments
North Korea’s response to the diplomatic overtures and scaled-down military drills has been cool. Kim Yo-jong, the sister of the North Korean leader, stated that she was unaware of any recent direct communications between the two leaders, though she maintained that personal relations between them remain very good. However, she dismissed the reduction of joint military drills as still provocative and bellicose, rejecting the notion that Pyongyang would view the move as a meaningful goodwill gesture.
Amid these diplomatic signals, regional security activity has continued. The Japanese government reported that North Korea launched a suspected ballistic missile toward the sea, with the projectile ultimately landing outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone, according to broadcaster NHK.
Additional assessments regarding North Korea’s capabilities include:
- Estimates from the Federation of American Scientists indicating sufficient material for 70 to 90 warheads, with roughly 50 completed warheads produced.
- Analyses from nuclear technology experts suggesting current stockpiles consist of uranium and plutonium warheads that could potentially expand significantly in the coming years.
- Previous statements from South Korean leadership noting the country’s capacity to produce a substantial number of atomic warheads annually.
SOHA emphasized that South Korea remains committed to its defensive posture, noting that the nation cannot develop nuclear weapons nor agree to the deployment of U.S. tactical nuclear arms on its territory. Meanwhile, international research and government reports continue to monitor Pyongyang’s advancements in delivery systems, ranging from tactical multiple rocket launchers to long-range cruise missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
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