On August 25, 2026, the sun erupted with a powerful M6.98 solar flare and coronal mass ejection from active sunspot region 4513, triggering radio blackouts on Earth. Models indicate the ejection could deliver a glancing blow by August 28, potentially aligning with high-speed solar wind to boost aurora activity.
The sun unleashed a powerful M6.98 solar flare from an active, Earth-facing region on August 25, 2026. According to the reporting, the eruption peaked at 6:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time, or 10:00 GMT, originating from sunspot region 4513.
That specific sunspot had already proven restless over the preceding 24 hours.
Active Sunspot 4513 and Radio Disruptions
Solar flares are categorized into five distinct classes—A, B, C, M, and X—with each successive tier multiplying power by a factor of ten. While X-class flares sit at the pinnacle of intensity, M-class eruptions represent the second-strongest category.
The peak of the M6.9 eruption brought immediate, tangible consequences to the sunlit side of the planet.
NASA Model Predictions and the August 28 Glancing Blow
Alongside the electromagnetic radiation, the sun hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into deep space. Early modeling from NASA points toward a potential impact on Earth by Friday, August 28.
Aurora chaser Jure Atanackov evaluated the NASA M2M WSA-ENLIL+Cone model predictions, noting that the CME could reach Earth around 10 to 11 UTC, though with an uncertainty window of approximately seven hours.
Because lopsided extreme ultraviolet dimming suggested the CME would deliver only a glancing blow, Atanackov described the ejection as slow-moving and stated he was not expecting much from this one in terms of standalone display power.
Solar Wind Streams and Aurora Forecasts
However, the space weather outlook contains a second variable. The Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC) reported that a high-speed solar wind stream originating from a positive-polarity coronal hole is expected to begin influencing Earth starting August 27.
SIDC forecasts unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions, leaving room for minor storm levels. If the arrival of the slow CME aligns precisely with the incoming high-speed solar wind stream, the two combined forces could amplify geomagnetic activity and improve visibility for northern lights observers.
Ultimate visibility depends heavily on timing variables and the orientation of the CME’s magnetic field. A strong southward-directed magnetic field couples more efficiently with Earth’s magnetosphere, a dynamic that may intensify geomagnetic activity if conditions align correctly later in the week.
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