Ukraine could strike deep inside Russian territory using domestically manufactured ballistic missiles within three to six months, according to Mykhailo Fedorov. The projection arrives as Kyiv faces a severe missile defense crisis, struggling to intercept high-velocity Russian ballistic salvos amid critical munitions shortages.
Ukraine’s defense manufacturing sector is accelerating development on homegrown ballistic systems that could fundamentally shift the country’s military capabilities before the end of the year. Speaking in an exclusive interview with Cbsnews, Mykhailo Fedorov outlined the timeline for the new domestic missile program.
Up to this point, Kyiv has relied primarily on long-range drones and cruise missiles to target installations deep inside Russia. While effective in disrupting logistics, those systems travel more slowly and remain vulnerable to detection and interception. In contrast, domestic ballistic missiles would provide a high-speed response option to match the incoming barrages Ukraine faces daily.
Domestic Missile Testing and Technological Pressures
The acceleration of Kyiv’s ballistic program follows a successful test in June by Fire Point, one of Ukraine’s largest defense manufacturers. That test demonstrated the viability of a weapon designed to counter Russia’s long-range strikes.
“We need to defeat Russia in every technological cycle, and we have to make decisions 24/7,”
Mykhailo Fedorov
During his time as defense minister, Fedorov was credited with increasing Ukraine’s deep strikes into Russia tenfold and bolstering its domestic arsenal.
The High-Velocity Threat and Interception Crisis
While domestic missile development advances, Ukraine’s current active defense capabilities are severely strained. Recent analytical breakdowns show a sharp pivot in Russian strike patterns toward high-velocity systems, including the 9M723 short-range ballistic missile from the Iskander-M system, the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile, and the 3M22 Zircon aeroballistic weapon.
Data from the Ukrainian Air Force suggests that 180 ballistic and quasi-ballistic missiles were launched by Russia in July, of which 143 could not be intercepted. August figures have proven even more punishing, with only a single successful interception reported out of 52 incoming ballistic projectiles.
Experts note that ballistic missile defense imposes uncompromising structural realities. Interceptors must climb at extreme speeds with high terminal maneuverability, pushing individual interceptor costs into the millions of dollars. Because closing speeds are exceptionally high, defenders must employ a ripple-fire doctrine rather than standard shoot-look-shoot engagements, exhausting limited stockpiles at an unsustainable rate.
Escalating Casualties and Expanding North Korean Involvement
The inability to consistently neutralize incoming ballistic threats has translated directly into civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that recent strikes on the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia, which killed six people and wounded 20 others, utilized North Korean ballistic missiles alongside Zircon anti-ship missiles and precision-guided KABs.
Intelligence assessments indicate that military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang continues to deepen. Beyond supplying millions of artillery and mortar rounds, North Korea has supplied ballistic missiles, long-range artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems.
Drone Offensives and Diplomatic Pressures
To offset active defense shortfalls, Ukraine has scaled up asymmetrical operations. In a nighttime attack on a dozen Russian regions, Ukraine launched drone assaults, Russia’s Defense Ministry said. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed to have intercepted 660 Ukrainian drones. Ukrainian intelligence agencies reported strikes against naval vessels and radar installations in Kerch.
As domestic ballistic missile programs race against time, the immediate operational window hinges on whether international supply chains can bridge Ukraine’s active defense gap before homegrown strike options reach deployment.
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