Ashley Moody Leads Alex Vindman in Florida Senate Poll

Senate features a high-stakes matchup between appointed Republican incumbent Substack and retired Army lieutenant colonel Substack, who is running as a Democrat. While the Sunshine State has trended firmly Republican since 2020, both campaigns are navigating heavy financial investments and sharp political divisions ahead of the upcoming primaries on August 18.

Polling Margins and Primary Contests in Florida

In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, Moody leads Vindman 47% to 40%. A separate survey conducted earlier in July by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida placed Moody slightly higher in prospective individual matchups, leading Vindman 50% to 40% and Jacksonville state Representative Floridaphoenix 50% to 42% among likely midterm voters.

Both major parties face internal primary contests before the November 3 general election. Moody faces four Republican challengers on the August 18 ballot, while Vindman competes against Nixon for the Democratic nomination. Floridaphoenix, faculty director at the Public Opinion Research Lab, noted that the two Democratic Senate candidates perform similarly in early surveys. Despite very different ideological approaches, the two Democratic Senate candidates do about as well as one another, suggesting the party’s internal debate over whether to move left or stay centrist may not much affect the behavior of voters, or at least that they aren’t paying attention yet, Freeder said in a statement.

Fundraising Figures and Campaign Resources

Despite trailing in early polling averages, Vindman has mounted a heavily funded challenge against the incumbent senator. Financial disclosures through June 30 show that Vindman raised $14.5 million, outpacing Moody’s collected total of $10.8 million, according to Substack. Other tracking reports indicate Vindman’s overall fundraising figures have surpassed $16.7 million for the election cycle, while Nixon reported raising slightly over $625,000 with approximately $118,000 in cash on hand at the end of June, as reported by the Floridaphoenix.

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Moody, who previously served as Florida’s attorney general and led the statewide GOP ticket in both 2018 and 2022, was appointed to the Senate seat following the departure of Marco Rubio to serve as Secretary of State.

Vindman’s Background and Political Attacks

Vindman gained national prominence in 2019 when he testified before the House Intelligence Committee during President Donald Trump’s first impeachment trial regarding a phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The candidate’s past service includes working as the Director for European Affairs on the National Security Council from 2018 to 2020 and serving as a political-military affairs officer for Russia on the Joint Staff at the Pentagon. After retiring from the Army, Vindman and his wife, Rachel, relocated to Broward County in 2023. His campaign has maintained an active ground presence, including a May 2026 rally in Dailycommercial organized by local supporters.

Republican critics have mounted sharp attacks against the Democratic candidate.

Broader Senate Balance and Strategic Outlook

Control of the U.S. While Decision Desk HQ forecasts that the Republican Party holds approximately a 4-in-5 chance of retaining the Florida seat, competitive contests across Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas offer Democrats alternative paths to a majority. Analysts note that a flip in Florida would give Democrats an estimated 84% probability of capturing the chamber.