Yemen’s Houthis Seize Strategic Red Sea Port, Officials Say

Houthi Forces Capture Mocha

Yemen’s Houthi forces captured the historic port city of Mocha, located in the Taiz governorate, establishing a formidable position along the southwestern coast. Four Yemeni government military sources confirmed the seizure to Reuters, noting that the offensive places the group closer to total command over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most important shipping routes. The narrow maritime corridor connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, serving as a vital artery for international trade, oil shipments, and commodities moving between Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal, or the Suez-Mediterranean pipeline on Egypt’s Red Sea coast, as well as commodities bound for Asia, including Russian oil. Bab el-Mandeb, or the Gate of Tears, named for its perilous navigation conditions, is the southern outlet of the Red Sea, between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea on the African coast, making it a major prize for the Houthis, who control Yemen’s most populous areas and much of the north.

Strategic Push Along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait

As Houthi fighters consolidated their hold on Mokha, military activity rippled across adjacent coastal zones. Government sources reported that the Houthis were launching attacks on the strategic Red Sea islands of Hanish. In response, government forces and their allies are relocating south to Dhubab, which sits directly on the strait, across from the island of Perim. Control of Dhubab and the island is key to gaining hold of the strait, they said.

Houthis Kill Six in Deadly Bab el-Mandeb Strait Ship Attack

There has been an escalation in fighting between Saudi Arabia’s Yemeni allies in the internationally backed government and the Houthis in recent days, creating a second theatre of war in the Iran conflict that threatens global energy supplies. A U.N.-brokered truce in Yemen in 2022 largely halted years of war but has not led to a lasting settlement, with the latest fighting threatening a return to full-scale conflict.

Energy Supplies and Regional Market Pressures

The convergence of naval disruptions in both the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and other routes has stoked concern over global energy supplies. Blocking the narrow passage would isolate Gulf oil-producing countries, such as energy superpower Saudi Arabia, from their main shipping routes after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — the primary maritime energy artery between Asia and Europe. The escalating conflict in Yemen comes as Iran and the United States staged their biggest declared wave of tit-for-tat attacks on shipping in the Gulf region since the war began in February. About 28 commodity vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb on Wednesday, roughly in line with the recent average, according to preliminary ship-tracking data.

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Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normality Predictions

The market for the Strait of Hormuz traffic normality by December 31 has seen a decrease in the probability of a YES resolution, now priced at 14.5% compared to 18% a day ago. The instability introduced by the Houthi advance could contribute to further uncertainty regarding normal traffic conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil shipments. Observers will be monitoring the response from the Yemeni government and the Saudi-led coalition to the Houthi advance in Mokha. Any increase in military activity or diplomatic efforts to reclaim the port could influence regional stability. Additionally, changes in naval operations or shipping activities in the Strait of Hormuz will be critical indicators of whether traffic normality can be restored by the end of the year. The actions of key regional players, including Iran and Saudi Arabia, will be essential to watch in the coming weeks.

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Cross-Border Strikes and Diplomatic Friction

Khamis Mushait Air Base Targeted

The ground offensive in Mocha coincides with a sharp escalation in fighting in Yemen and across the Saudi border in recent days, raising fears of a return to full-scale war. The Houthis launched one of their largest attacks on Saudi Arabia since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in February, targeting an air base at Khamis Mushait and oil infrastructure in nearby cities. The Saudi-led coalition said at least 73 people were wounded in attacks on four southern Saudi cities.

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said Wednesday that Saudi warplanes had carried out 54 strikes over a 12-hour window. Footage released by the Houthis purportedly shows an attack on weapons and military equipment transferred by Saudi Arabia to a military camp in northern Yemen on Sept. 7.