This year’s powerful El Niño and record global heat could drive nearly half a million excess deaths worldwide by February 2027, according to a research report released by the University of Chicago-based Climate Impact Lab. The Global South is projected to bear the heaviest toll.
An ongoing, fast-developing Super El Niño event could lead to an estimated 451,000 additional deaths worldwide through late February 2027, according to researchers using climate models to evaluate near-term mortality impacts. The projection encompasses severe droughts, wildfires, and shrinking water supplies driven by record global temperatures.
Global Toll and the Sahel Region
The research report, produced by scientists at the University of Chicago-based Climate Impact Lab, warns that the heaviest toll will fall on developing nations grappling with food insecurity and high energy costs, partly due to climate change and the fallout of the war in Iran. Researchers estimated the fatalities by comparing projected deaths under El Niño-driven conditions with baseline mortality over the last three decades across more than 24,000 regions worldwide. The projected fatalities are for the entire El Niño period, from June 2026 until the end of February 2027.
Among the hardest-hit areas is the Sahel region in Africa, encompassing countries along the semiarid southern fringe of the Sahara Desert, which faces approximately 66,800 additional deaths caused by El Niño-driven heat. Countries across the Sahel including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad will see significant heat deaths compared to a normal year. Globally, individual countries listed in the projections include Nigeria with 31,400, Indonesia with 19,300, Sudan with 17,500, India with 15,800, and Brazil with 13,300.
Vulnerability Across the Global South
The study highlights a stark disparity in how extreme temperatures affect different populations. Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the research group and study co-author, noted that extreme heat is most dangerous in regions that are already hot and possess fewer economic resources.
If you’re already in a hot place, the extra couple of degrees are going to be much more dangerous.
Michael Greenstone, study co-founder and co-author
Greenstone added that wealthier places generally have greater access to air conditioning, reliable water supplies, and functioning health systems. The researchers caution that global land temperatures are projected to be 1.2C above normal in the coming months due in large part to the Super El Niño. Furthermore, Greenstone stated that the heat danger will likely persist beyond February — even though this El Nino is expected to end by then — and that the fallout of the weather phenomenon could be felt well into next summer.
Projections and Adaptation Calls
Out of the total projected 451,000 fatalities, researchers state that 239,000 lives will be lost in the next six months alone. The timeline of peak impacts varies considerably between countries. Those countries projected to see the largest number of excess heat-related deaths in the latter half of the forecast period include Nigeria and Indonesia, which will face 15,400 and 10,400 more heat deaths than normal between December and February, respectively, and Brazil and India, which are projected to see 8,000 and 7,400 additional heat-related deaths over that three-month period.
Describing the current climate patterns, the research team warned that the anomalously warm temperatures that most of the globe will see during this El Niño event are a postcard from the future
: while they feel anomalous now, they will become normal just a few decades into the future.
In response to the findings, the study authors are calling for urgent action in areas flagged as high risk for heat deaths, highlighting solutions such as early warning systems, expanded water availability, and wider access to cooling technologies. They emphasized that building an evidence base for effective interventions and investing in preparations and planning is essential to mitigating future heat-related mortality.
По теме
