Ukrainian forces have conducted successful counterattacks in the Kupyansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman directions, disrupting Russian encirclement efforts around the Donetsk Oblast Fortress Belt.
Institute for the Study of War Strategic Initiative Assessment
The strategic initiative on the battlefield has undergone a notable transformation. Ukrainian forces have contested the initiative at both the strategic and operational levels, maintaining pressure through late 2025 and into 2026 for the first time since the August 2024 Kursk offensive according to the Institute for the Study of War. Data shows that Ukrainian formations have held Russian forces to near-zero net gains since March 2026, and have conducted successful counterattacks in the Kupyansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman directions.
Territorial Control and Shifting Frontlines Around Lyman
Recent military assessments highlight a sharp contrast in territorial metrics reported by open-source monitors and research groups. Based on data from the Ukrainian DeepState OSINT group, Russian forces made a net gain of 14 square miles of Ukrainian territory during the four-week period from August 11 to September 8, 2026. This figure reflects a slowdown compared to the previous four-week period from July 14 to August 11, when Russian forces registered a net gain of 33 square miles.
In contrast, independent analysis of Institute for the Study of War mapping data indicates a Russian net gain of 75 square miles for the same August 11 to September 8 window. During the one-week period of September 1–8, 2026, Russian forces saw a net gain of 20 square miles according to DeepState data, following a net gain of 17 square miles during the previous one-week period of August 25–September 1, 2026. According to the map maintained by DeepState, Russian forces advanced near 15 Ukrainian settlements in the period of September 1–8, 2026. On September 3, 2026, the Ukrainian Armed Forces regained control of an area near one settlement, Dvorichna, according to DeepState. From September 9, 2025 to September 8, 2026, Russia made a net gain of 886 square miles—about 0.4 percent of Ukraine’s total territory of 233,062 square miles at the time of its independence in 1991. Despite these localized advances, Ukrainian counterattacks have dismantled a major tactical salient north of Lyman.
The total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas that Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, stands at 45,193 square miles according to DeepState data as of September 8, 2026, and 45,722 square miles according to Institute for the Study of War data as of the same date.
The elimination of this northern salient has disrupted the Russian military command’s plans to execute a wide encirclement of the Donetsk Oblast Fortress Belt. Russian forces had previously attempted a two-pronged strategy, pushing from the south through Dobropillya and from the north across the Siverskyi Donets River near Lyman. Ukrainian counteractions have blunted the northern prong of this maneuver, defeating Russian efforts to push into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, regaining lost ground in and around Kupyansk, and destroying a significant Russian salient that threatened the northern flank of Slovyansk.
Casualties and Wider Theater Dynamics
Western Official RM Estimate Casualties Statistics
Broader conflict statistics underscore the staggering toll of the ongoing war. According to a February 2026 estimate that a highly-informed former high-ranking Western official shared with RM, cumulative Russian military casualties (killed and wounded) have reached 1,000,000. Ukrainian military casualties are estimated between 250,000 and 300,000 killed and wounded over the same timeframe.
Command Challenges and Mobilization Pressures
Central Military District and Moscow Military District Deployments
Elements of Russia’s 25th Combined Arms Army from the Central Military District have been engaged in the effort to seize Lyman, while elements of the 20th Combined Arms Army from the Moscow Military District have been primarily focused on advancing north of Lyman. However, months of sustained Ukrainian defense and drone-based counter-operations have challenged their positions. Ukrainian forces currently maintain advantages in both tactical and operational drone operations and drone-infantry integration.
With operational momentum stalled in multiple sectors, Russian commanders are reportedly pressing Russian President Vladimir Putin for a massive mobilization likely aimed at restoring their ability to seize and hold the initiative. Analysts note that it remains unclear how such a mobilization, if ordered, will change theater dynamics in the face of Ukraine’s current tactical advantages.
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