Seven Ethiopian armed groups have formed a joint coalition aimed at overthrowing the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The groups announced the alliance on Sunday, stating their objective is to remove the current regime and facilitate the establishment of an inclusive transitional government guided by a charter.
The coalition, which calls itself the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival (or the Alliance for Survival), brings together various political and ethnic movements, including separatist organizations, communists, and ethnic nationalists. According to TPLF vice president Amanuel Assefa, the groups are collaborating to remove the regime and facilitate a transitional government.
Composition of the Alliance
The alliance is composed of three major forces and four smaller groups. The primary members include:
- The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF): A group that dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Abiy Ahmed took office.
- The Amhara Fano National Movement: A coalition of Fano factions that has been engaged in fighting federal forces in the Amhara region since 2023.
- The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA): An active insurgency that has fought federal forces in Oromia since 2018.
The remaining four members of the coalition are the Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement, the Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (Ugugumo), and the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF).
Leaders of these groups had been in discussions to form the alliance for approximately one year, according to a source close to Fano. OLA military leader Jaal Marroo told a local broadcaster earlier this month that the groups had met several times before the final announcement. Fano leader Zemene Kassie first indicated that deals had been reached in an August 16 interview with the Swiss newspaper Le Temps.
Political Stakes and Conflict Context
The alliance accuses the government of imposing a dictatorial rule
that has pushed Ethiopia toward a break-up. The coalition claims a transitional government would protect rights, open a national dialogue, and end ongoing wars. Academic Eyob Tilahun stated that the allied forces believe they all face a survival threat
from the government.
This alliance marks a significant shift in regional dynamics, as some members were previously adversaries. Fano fought alongside federal forces against Tigrayan fighters during the 2020 to 2022 Tigray war, a conflict that killed hundreds of thousands of people. Additionally, Amhara and Tigray both claim Western Tigray, which has been administered by Amhara nationalists since the war ended.
Threats to Peace and Regional Stability
The announcement follows a period of heightened tension. In mid-July, the TPLF declared the 2022 Pretoria peace deal—which ended the large-scale war between the federal government and the TPLF—to be effectively dead.
Recent clashes in the Tigray region have further deepened fears of a return to full-scale war. The African Union has reported that both the government and the TPLF have massed troops along the northern state border in recent months.
External factors have also complicated the security landscape. Getachew Reda, Ethiopia’s Minister and Advisor to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on East African Affairs, has alleged that Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki is coordinating with armed groups and receiving support from Egypt to destabilize Ethiopia. Reda characterized the relationship between the TPLF leadership and Eritrea as a marriage of convenience
driven by a shared opponent in the federal government. Eritrea has rejected these accusations, and its Ministry of Information stated on September 12 that Ethiopian government-linked institutions were spreading fabricated allegations.
Military and Strategic Outlook
While the alliance could increase pressure on federal forces by coordinating military activities across four to five fronts, some analysts express skepticism. Kjetil Tronvoll of Oslo New University College questioned whether the rebels could sustain such a war against a government that possesses numerous drones. Tronvoll also raised concerns regarding what would follow a potential takeover, given the differing ideologies of the armed groups.
The federal government has not yet publicly commented on the formation of the Alliance for Survival.
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