A “super” El Niño is currently strengthening and may become the most powerful occurrence of the phenomenon since 1950, according to data from the Columbia Climate School and other meteorological models. Some forecasts suggest it could be the strongest ever recorded, with the Climate Prediction Center stating there is a greater than 90% chance the event will reach “super” strength and a 69% chance it will be the strongest since 1950, according to Yahoo.
Climate Indicators and Peak Intensity
The phenomenon is driven by the heating of the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters beyond normal levels. The Niño 3.4 indicator currently shows sea temperatures 3 degrees Celsius above the usual value, fueled by a massive body of warm water beneath the ocean surface that pushes heat upward, according to Crónica.
Experts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts estimate that this warming could peak at 4.1 degrees Celsius in December. While the phenomenon is expected to reach maximum intensity toward the end of the year, its effects are likely to persist through early 2027, with some projections suggesting it could last until April 2027.
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Impacts in Argentina
In Argentina, the Súper Niñois categorized asvery strong and is expected to bring a period of instability throughout the southern hemisphere’s spring and summer. According to Canal 13 San Juan, the impact will include severe storms featuring hail, intense gusts, and heavy rainfall over short periods, as well as heatwaves.
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The risk is not uniform across the country. The Litoral region faces the highest probability of above-normal rainfall, specifically in the following provinces:
- Entre Ríos
- Corrientes
- Misiones
- Chaco
- Formosa
Meteorological data cited by Meteored indicates these predictions primarily cover the period from November to March. In these areas, the Uruguay River typically experiences sudden and violent rises, while the Paraná River increases more slowly but moves larger volumes of water. Conversely, the phenomenon is expected to have less intensity in La Pampa, Cuyo, the northeast of Patagonia, and southwest Buenos Aires.
Agricultural and Global Risks
The magnitude of this event, sometimes referred to as Niño Godzilla,has raised alarms in Argentina's agricultural sector. While moderate El Niño events can benefit certain crops, thesuper intensity threatens crop losses and water excesses, according to reports from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI).
Globally, the effects vary by region. According to a map from Columbia University’s Center for Climate Systems Research, the southeastern United States has a more than 70% chance of seeing more rain than normal, while the northeastern U.S., the Ohio Valley, and parts of Southeast Asia and Brazil are more likely to face drought conditions. In Kenya, the KHRC warned that El Niño combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could cause “severe floods” in roughly 80% of the country, potentially affecting 47 counties, according to Clarín.
Safety Recommendations
Civil protection and risk management agencies are urging the public to stay informed via the National Meteorological Service (SMN). Recommended precautions include checking home drains and avoiding unnecessary exposure during strong storm alerts.
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