Federal Reserve’s crucial interest rate decision later in the day.
GIFT Nifty Signals Muted Trade as Crude Hovers Near Five-Month Highs
GIFT Nifty futures traded at 23,239 around 8:15 a.m., up 37 points, or 0.16 percent, while NSE IX contracts traded higher by 8.5 points at 23,211. The modest figures point to a tentative recovery after domestic equities touched a five-month low on Tuesday amid broad-based selling. GIFT Nifty September 2026 futures were up 31.50 points, indicating a mildly positive start for the Nifty 50.
Market participants continue to grapple with persistent macro headwinds. Analysts say Indian equities are likely to remain weak amid elevated crude prices, renewed inflation concerns and uncertainty ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Investors will now focus on the Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 policy meeting, with the rate decision due on September 16, amid heightened uncertainty over the inflationary impact of higher crude prices.
Energy Markets and Geopolitical Strain Drive Inflationary Fears
Crude oil prices remained a dominant overhang for emerging markets. Brent crude climbed 1.22% to $92.12 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 1.09% to $85.26 per barrel. Oil prices extended their rally amid fears of fresh supply disruptions as the conflict in the Middle East intensified. On Tuesday, Indian equities ended lower for a second straight session. The Sensex fell 238.41 points, or 0.31%, to close at 77,470.11, while the Nifty 50 declined 50.80 points, or 0.21%, to settle at 24,187.70.
The energy shock rippled across global risk assets. U.S. stocks slipped Tuesday after oil prices and the bond market cranked up the pressure on Wall Street. The S&P 500 fell 0.45%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 328 points, or 0.6%, and the Nasdaq composite sank 0.8%. Meanwhile, India VIX, which is a measure of the fear in the markets, rose 9% to settle at 13.43.
Federal Reserve Rate Decision and Institutional Capital Flows
Investors are training their attention squarely on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Asian equities made tentative gains on Wednesday after four consecutive sessions of losses, as the recent rise in global bond yields and crude eased. Most Asian equity benchmarks traded higher on Wednesday, supported by regional gains ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement. The upward movement occurred alongside elevated crude oil prices and higher US Treasury yields. In Japan, trade deficit widened significantly to JPY 1,105.6 billion in August 2026 from JPY 294.1 billion a year earlier. It marked the fourth consecutive month of deficit and the largest since January.
Foreign institutional investors remained sellers for a fifth consecutive session, offloading Indian equities worth Rs 2,977 crore on September 15. Domestic institutional investors partly countered the outflows with net purchases of Rs 2,686 crore. FPIs sold shares worth Rs 15544.65 crore in September so far, through 15 September 2026. This follows net cash purchases of Rs 17,366 crore in August 2026, while they were net buyers of Rs 6,731.97 crore in July 2026.
Upcoming Policy Shifts in Domestic Payments
India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) will roll out a targeted Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) regime effective 15 October 2026, ending a years-long blanket zero-MDR policy to build a self-sustaining funding base for network infrastructure, cybersecurity, and platform scalability.
Under the new guidelines notified by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) and the Reserve Bank of India, a standard 0.4% MDR capped at Rs 300 for high-ticket purchases will apply strictly to commercial person-to-merchant (P2M) payments above Rs 2,000, while essential utilities and fuel will draw a flat Rs 5 fee and capital market transfers are levied at 0.02%. Retail consumers and individual peer-to-peer (P2P) transfers remain entirely insulated from charges, as do small merchants processing under Rs 1 lakh a month and all transactions up to Rs 2,000, which together account for over 95% of daily UPI transaction volumes.
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