The U.S. military is concluding its two-decade presence in Iraq this week, with combat and logistical support forces fully withdrawn under an agreement reached in 2024. The quiet departure by Wednesday leaves behind pressing concerns over regional security, a resurgent Islamic State threat, and growing Iranian influence across the country.
The military exit brings down the curtain on an American troop deployment that began with the 2003 invasion that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein. Central Command has opted for a quiet withdrawal this week, scheduling no press-accredited ceremonies as the last of roughly 2,500 personnel leave their posts. At the height of the war, American forces in the country numbered around 170,000.
The pullout follows an agreement struck under President Joe Biden’s administration in 2024, carried out now by Donald Trump as part of a broader pledge to end lengthy overseas conflicts. Unlike the 2011 withdrawal that preceded a militant resurgence, this week’s exit leaves behind a strengthened Iraqi military developed through 23 years of training, though analysts warn critical gaps remain in air support, intelligence, and surveillance.
Strategic Opening for Tehran and Regional Armed Factions
With American forces departing their final bases, Iran and its allied factions are hailing the milestone as a major geopolitical triumph. Tehran views the exit as a vital victory for its regional network of armed groups.
“Iran stands to benefit strategically from the coalition’s departure because it removes a military presence that for years acted as a counterweight to Tehran’s influence in Iraq.”
Jasim al-Bahadli, Iraqi security analyst specializing in armed Shi’ite groups
Pro-Iranian militia coalitions have organized public celebrations, designating the transition period around September 30 as a public holiday. Commanders within the Islamic Resistance in Iraq described the moment as a historic victory for the Iraqi Islamic resistance groups and honorable Iraqis, and a crushing defeat for the American project
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Yet that political momentum worries domestic critics who question Baghdad’s immediate readiness. We believe Iraq is still not fully ready to take over the security file at this time,
said Abdulrahman al-Zobaie, a Sunni tribal leader in Fallujah, pointing to the vacuum left by the coalition’s departure.
Vulnerability in the Autonomous Kurdish Region and Northern Outposts
While federal authorities in Baghdad prepare to mark the transition, northern Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region faces acute security pressures. American personnel had been stationed in Erbil and surrounding facilities, maintaining a stabilizing presence that is now disappearing.
In recent months, the region has absorbed roughly a thousand drone and missile attacks attributed to Iran and allied militias, largely targeting exiled Iranian Kurdish opposition groups. Kurdish leaders report that the territory lacks adequate air defenses to intercept incoming strikes, leaving local forces feeling heavily exposed as regional tensions persist.
Militia Disarmament Deadlines and Washington's Financial Influence
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi had initially committed to bringing all armed factions under state control by September 30. However, political realities have pushed that timeline to mid-next year, with U.S. officials indicating a willingness to grant extra time as long as Baghdad demonstrates genuine intent.
Washington retains potent economic instruments even after the complete military departure. Because Iraqi oil revenues and national banks remain integrated into the international U.S. dollar system, the United States has significant power to ensure Iraqi financial compliance, sanctions enforcement, and anti-money-laundering measures.
Concerns Over Islamic State Sleeper Cells
Security officials in both the federal government and the Kurdish region warn that the departure of coalition forces could create operational space for Islamic State fighters. Although the group’s territorial caliphate was declared defeated in Iraq in 2017, underground sleeper cells retain the capability to launch opportunistic attacks.
With the final military footprint now gone, Iraqi security forces must independently manage both domestic militant remnants and external pressures along the border.
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